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To assess the association between coffee consumption and life expectancy among the US adults.
Design:
Prospective cohort.
Setting:
National representative survey in the United States, 2001–2018.
Participants:
A total of 43,114 participants aged 20 years or older with complete coffee consumption data were included from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001–2018.
Results:
Over a median follow-up of 8.7 years, 6,234 total deaths occurred, encompassing 1,929 deaths from cardiovascular disease and 1,411 deaths from cancer. Based on the nationally representative survey, we found that coffee consumption is associated with longer life expectancy. The estimated life expectancy at age 50 was 30.06 years (95% confidence interval, 29.68 to 30.44), 30.82 years (30.12 to 31.57), 32.08 years (31.52 to 32.70), 31.24 years (30.29 to 32.19), and 31.45 years (30.39 to 32.60) in participants consuming 0, ≤1, 1 to ≤2, 2 to ≤3, and >3 cups of coffee per day, respectively. Consequently, compared with non-coffee drinkers, participants who consumed 1 to ≤2 cups/day had a gain of 2.02 years (1.17 to 2.85) in life expectancy on average, attributable to a 0.61-year (29.72%) reduction in CVD deaths. Similar benefits were found in both males and females.
Conclusion:
Our findings suggest that moderate coffee consumption (approximately 2 cups per day) could be recommended as a valuable component of a healthy diet and may be an adjustable effective intervention measure to increase life expectancy.
Adherence to healthy dietary patterns, including fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, is linked to improved health outcomes. However, limited research has explored this association in Latin American populations. This study aimed to investigate the association between adherence to a healthy eating score (unweighted and weighted) and all-cause mortality risk in a Chilean population. This longitudinal study included 5,336 Chilean participants from the Chilean National Health Survey 2016 and 2017. Six healthy eating habits were considered to produce the healthy eating score (range: 0–12): consumption of seafood, whole grain, dairy, fruits, vegetables and legumes. A weighted score was also developed. Participants were categorized into quartiles based on their final scores, with the healthiest quartile used as the reference group. Associations between healthy eating score and all-cause mortality were performed using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for confounders. After a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 276 (5.2%) participants died. In the fully-adjusted model, compared with participants in the healthiest quartile of the score (Q4), those in the unhealthiest quartile (Q1) had 1.61 (95%CI: 1.14-2.27) times higher all-cause mortality risk. A similar association was observed for the weighted healthy eating score [1.52 (95%CI: 1.03-2.23)]. An inverse trend was observed for both scores (p<0.05). Sensitivity analyses excluding participants who died within the first two years showed consistent results 1.63 (95%CI: 1.09-2.42). Individuals with the lowest healthy eating score (unweighted or weighted) had a higher mortality risk compared to their counterparts. A healthy eating score is associated with mortality risk in the Chilean population.
We assessed whether the motor component of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCSm) is independently associated with unfavorable outcomes in aggressively treated poor-grade subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients.
Methods:
Retrospective cohort of poor-grade SAH patients (World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grades IV and V). The best GCSm score achieved within 24 h of admission was stratified into four categories (<4, 4, 5 or 6). Outcomes were classified as favorable [modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2] or unfavorable (mRS ≥ 3). Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of unfavorable outcome.
Results:
A total of 179 patients were admitted during the study period (mean age 55.9 ± 12.1; 68.2% female). Thirty-three patients (33/179 – 18%) died before aneurysm treatment, one patient had missing GCSm data at 24 h and sixteen patients (16/179; 9%) were lost to follow-up. One hundred and twenty-nine patients (129/179 – 72%) were included in the final analysis. No patient with GCSm < 4 had a favorable outcome (sensitivity 22.4%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100% and negative predictive value 67.8% for unfavorable outcome). Delayed cerebral ischemia-related cerebral infarction (odds ratio (OR) 4.06; 1.56−11.11 95% CI, p = 0.004) and the best GCSm score were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. There was a stepwise decrease in the rate of unfavorable outcome from GCSm < 4 to GCSm = 6 (<4 = 100%; 4 = 80%; 5 = 46% and 6 = 20%). Each one-point decrease in GCSm score was associated with an OR of 3.52 (1.77−7.92 95% CI, p = < 0.001) for unfavorable outcome.
Conclusion:
The GCSm score was independently associated with unfavorable outcome. All patients with a GCSm score < 4 experienced an unfavorable outcome.
Considering the high likelihood of chronicity, it is imperative to understand the risk factors and outcomes associated with severe anorexia nervosa (AN), for which Danish registers provide a unique opportunity. We developed a measure of AN severity adapted from clinical literature for use in register-based research.
Methods
The study population included all Danish individuals born between 1963 and 2007 who were diagnosed with AN from 1969 to 2013. Using register data, we constructed the anorexia nervosa register-based severity index (AN-RSI), incorporating early or late illness onset, number of inpatient admissions and outpatient treatments, cumulative treatment length, and illness duration, each weighted based on clinical importance. Associations between AN-RSI scores, evaluated 5 years after first AN diagnosis, and mortality were estimated using survival analysis.
Results
Among 9167 individuals diagnosed with AN, 132 died during follow-up: 17 from AN, 30 from suicide, and 85 from other causes. Higher AN-RSI scores were associated with increased rates of mortality from AN, somatic anorexia diagnosis, suicide, alcohol-related causes, and any cause. AN cases who scored in the top 20% of AN-RSI had especially high mortality rates. Furthermore, severe AN cases were also more likely to be in treatment in the next 5 years after severity was established.
Conclusions
AN-RSI effectively captures mortality and long-term treatment in the absence of detailed patient records and is associated with later mortality in AN patients. AN-RSI could serve as a tool to examine epidemiological and genetic risk factors associated with AN course and outcomes.
As the population ages, the provision of adult long-term care (LTC) is one of the major challenges facing the UK and other developed nations. LTC funding for the elderly is complex, reflecting the range and level of services provided, with the total cost depending on the duration of LTC required. Institutional care settings (e.g., nursing/residential care homes) represent the most expensive form of LTC. Planning and funding for institutional LTC requires an understanding of the factors affecting the mortality (and hence duration and cost of care) of such LTC recipients. Using data provided by Bupa, one of the largest LTC providers in Britain, this paper investigates factors affecting the mortality of residents of institutional LTC facilities over the period 2016-2019. Consistent with existing research, most residents were female and had a higher average age profile compared with male residents. For those residents who died during the investigation period, the average length of stay was approximately 1.6 times longer for females relative to males. For both males and females, new residents experienced higher mortality in the first-year post admission compared to existing residents. Variations in the mortality of the residents were analysed by condition, funding status and care type on admission.
People with opioid use disorder (OUD) have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared with the general population. However, lack of individualised prognostic information presents challenges in personalisation of addiction treatment delivery.
Aims
To develop and validate the first prognostic models to estimate 6-month all-cause and drug-related mortality risk for people diagnosed with OUD using indicators recorded at baseline assessment in addiction services in England.
Method
Thirteen candidate prognostic variables, including sociodemographic, injecting status and health and mental health factors, were identified from nationally linked addiction treatment, hospital admission and death records from 1 April 2013 to 1 April 2022. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables, and missing data were addressed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Validation was undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination was assessed using Harrel’s C and D statistics alongside examination of observed-to-predicted event rates and calibration curve slopes.
Results
Data were available for 236 064 people with OUD, with 2427 deaths due to any cause, including 1289 due to drug-related causes. Both final models demonstrated good optimism-adjusted discrimination and calibration, with all-cause and drug-related models, respectively, demonstrating Harrell’s C statistics of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71–0.75) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.76), D-statistics of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.07 (95% CI 0.98–1.16) and calibration slopes of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.01 (95% CI 0.94–1.10).
Conclusions
We developed and internally validated Roberts’ OUD mortality risk, with the first models to accurately quantify individualised absolute 6-month mortality risks in people with OUD presenting to addiction services. Independent validation is warranted to ensure these models have the optimal utility to assist wider future policy, commissioning and clinical decision-making.
Educational opportunities and outcomes will determine whether a society thrives or merely survives a 100-year-life. Nations should ensure that educational opportunity gaps do not continue to leave behind children of color and children from low-income households who too often receive inferior educational opportunities. The US should adopt law and policy reforms that help to close these gaps and ensure that all children receive a high-quality education that will empower them to make the personal and professional adaptations that are essential for thriving over a 100-year-life.
We examine the impact of decentralisation on COVID-19 mortality and various health outcomes. Specifically, we investigate whether decentralised health systems, which facilitated greater regional participation and information sharing, were more effective in saving lives. Our analysis makes three contributions. First, we draw on evidence from several European countries to assess whether the decentralisation of health systems influenced COVID-19 mortality rates. Second, we explore the regional disparities in one of the most decentralised health systems, Spain, to untangle some of the determinants shaping health outcomes. Third, we estimate the regional loss of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) due to COVID-19 mortality, broken down by the wave of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that coordinated decentralisation played a critical role in saving lives throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although dementia is a terminal condition, palliation can be a challenge for clinical services. As dementia progresses, people frequently develop behavioural and psychological symptoms, sometimes so severe they require care in specialist dementia mental health wards. Although these are often a marker of late disease, there has been little research on the mortality of people admitted to these wards.
Aims
We sought to describe the mortality of this group, both on-ward and after discharge, and to investigate clinical features predicting 1-year mortality.
Method
First, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 576 people with dementia admitted to the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust dementia wards over an 8-year period. We attempted to identify predictors of mortality and build predictive machine learning models. To investigate deaths occurring during admission, we conducted a second analysis as a retrospective service evaluation involving mental health wards for people with dementia at four NHS trusts, including 1976 admissions over 7 years.
Results
Survival following admission showed high variability, with a median of 1201 days (3.3 years). We were not able to accurately predict those at high risk of death from clinical data. We found that on-ward mortality remains rare but had increased from 3 deaths per year in 2013 to 13 in 2019.
Conclusions
We suggest that arrangements to ensure effective palliation are available on all such wards. It is not clear where discussions around end-of-life care are best placed in the dementia pathway, but we suggest it should be considered at admission.
A fundamental problem in descriptive epidemiology is how to make meaningful and robust comparisons between different populations, or within the same population over different periods. The problem has several dimensions. First, the data we have to work with (e.g. incident and prevalent cases, and deaths) is rarely usable in its raw form. We must therefore transform it in some way before undertaking the comparison itself. Second, our data usually tells us about fundamentally different attributes of the populations we are seeking to compare. If we are only ever interested in comparing any one of these attributes at a time (mortality, for example), then one of several simple and well-established transformations is all that is typically required. Increasingly, however, epidemiologists are being asked to bring these attributes together into more integrated and meaningful comparisons.
We investigate whether the diseases for which there was more biomedical innovation had larger 1999–2019 reductions in premature mortality. Biomedical innovation related to a disease is measured by the change in the mean vintage of descriptors of PubMed articles about the disease. We analyze data on 286 million descriptors of 27 million articles about over 800 diseases. Premature mortality from a disease is significantly inversely related to the lagged vintage of descriptors of articles about the disease. In the absence of biomedical innovation, age-adjusted mortality rates would not have declined. Some factors other than biomedical innovation (e.g., a decline in smoking and an increase in educational attainment) contributed to the decline in mortality. But other factors (e.g., a rise in obesity and the prevalence of chronic conditions) contributed to an increase in mortality. Biomedical innovation reduced the mortality of white people sooner than it reduced the mortality of black people.
Triceps skinfold thickness (TSF) is a surrogate marker of subcutaneous fat. Evidence is limited about the association of sex-specific TSF with the risk of all-cause mortality among maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal relationship of TSF with all-cause mortality among MHD patients. A multicenter prospective cohort study was performed in 1034 patients undergoing MHD. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association of TSF with the risk of mortality. The mean (standard deviation) age of the study population was 54.1 (15.1) years. 599 (57.9%) of the participants were male. The median (interquartile range) of TSF was 9.7 (6.3–13.3 mm) in males and 12.7 (10.0–18.0 mm) in females. Over a median follow up of 4.4 years (interquartile range, 2.4-7.9 years), there were 548 (53.0%) deaths. When TSF was assessed as sex-specific quartiles, compared with those in quartile 1, the adjusted HRs (95%CIs) of all-cause mortality in quartile 2, quartile 3 and quartile 4 were 0.93 (0.73, 1.19), 0.75 (0.58, 0.97) and 0.69 (0.52, 0.92), respectively (P for trend =0.005). Moreover, when analyzed by sex, increased TSF (≥9.7 mm for males and ≥18mm for females) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (quartile 3-4 vs. quartile 1-2; HR, 0.70; 95%CI: 0.55, 0.90 in males; quartile 4 vs. Quartile 1-3; HR, 0.69; 95%CI: 0.48, 1.00 in females). In conclusion, high TSF was significantly associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality in MHD patients.
This article re-thinks the development of Paul’s thought between 1 and 2 Corinthians. Instead of the traditional developmental interpretation of Paul that emphasizes the differences between 1 Cor 15:35–57 and 2 Cor 5:1–5, I argue that a discernable development is to be found between 1 Cor 12:13 and 2 Cor 4:7–12. I demonstrate significant parallels between the two latter texts in terms of topic, argumentation, and the conceptual structure on which Paul’s argumentation is built. Based on the parallels, I argue that 1 Cor 12:13 conceptually allows for the innovative idea of “ongoing transformation,” which is formulated in 2 Cor 3:18, and provides the conceptual structure of “double body-containers” in 2 Cor 4:7–12 to expound this new idea. In the context of 2 Corinthians, responding to opponents’ challenge against the apostle’s physical weakness in sufferings, Paul goes on to develop the idea of ongoing transformation further by transforming mortality. Mortality becomes a form of human participation in God’s cosmic war and is considered constructive to the ongoing transformation of the inner person and the complete transformation in the future.
Infant mortality, a reflection of socioeconomic and health conditions of a population, is shaped by diverse factors. This study delves into a pre-industrial population, scrutinizing neonatal and post-neonatal deaths separately. Family factors such as mortality crises, religion, and legitimacy are also explored. Data of 9,086 people obtained through multigenerational information from ecclesiastic records from 1603 to 1908 were analysed by means of a joinpoint regression analysis. Death risk was assessed with univariate and multivariate Cox Proportional Hazard models. Early neonatal mortality was 5.6% of births and showed a gradual and steady increase from 1630 to 1908, with no substantial improvement over the three centuries analysed. Late neonatal (4.3% of births) and post-neonatal mortality (18.7% of births) shared a different pattern, showing a decline between the mid-18th and mid-19th centuries, and an increase by the 20th century that could be caused by socioeconomic factors and the impact of several epidemics. In the historical population of Hallstatt, infant survival was influenced by the sex of the newborn, the death of the mother and the precedent sibling, and by the birth interval. Environmental and cultural factors, such as mortality crises and religion, influenced late neonatal and post-neonatal mortality, but not early neonatal mortality. The results highlight the need to independently assess early neonatal mortality in studies of infant mortality in historical populations, and to use as complete time periods as possible to capture differences in mortality patterns.
To evaluate the outcomes of patients with single ventricle physiology supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a bridge to first-stage palliation.
Methods:
This was a retrospective registry-based study. Data from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry were used to identify single ventricle physiology patients supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prior to palliation from 2016 to 2021. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses for associations with mortality were conducted.
Results:
Primary outcome was death before hospital discharge. Patient characteristics including demographics and associated complications were evaluated as secondary outcomes. Sixty-five patients met inclusion criteria. Survival to discharge was 42%. Twenty-four (37%) patients died while on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. There was no significant difference in demographics between survivors and non-survivors. Non-survivors had a significantly longer median duration on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation compared to survivors, 99-hrs [IQR (Interquartile Range), 160, 300] vs. 59-hrs [43, 124] (p<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration (adjusted-OR [Odds Ratio] 1.01, 95% CI [Confidence Interval] 0.98, 0.99; p = 0.03) and requiring renal replacement therapy (42% vs. 19%; p = 0.04) were associated with mortality prior to discharge.
Conclusions:
Clinicians managing decompensated patients with single ventricle physiology may consider extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a bridge to palliation. Survival to discharge was 42%. Evidence of renal injury and longer extracorporeal membrane oxygenation durations were associated with mortality. These data may be used to guide providers and to counsel families. However, more data are needed to refine indications and assess associations related to outcomes and decision-making.
To examine the potential indirect effect of meal frequency on mortality via obesity indices.
Design:
Prospective cohort study
Setting:
Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.
Participants:
This cohort study involved 148 438 South Korean adults aged 40 years and older.
Results:
Meal frequency at the baseline survey was assessed using a validated FFQ. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cancer mortality and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to examine the relationship between meal frequency and the risk of mortality. Mediation analyses were performed with changes in obesity indices (BMI and weight circumference (WC)) as mediators. In comparison to the three-time group, the once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups had a higher risk for all-cause mortality. The irregular frequency group had a higher risk for CVD mortality. Both once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups exhibited higher risks for cancer mortality. The effect of meal frequency on all-cause mortality was partially mediated by WC. For specific-cause mortality, similar mediation effects were found.
Conclusions:
The data suggests that three meals per day have a lower mortality and longer life expectancy compared with other meal frequencies. Increased waist circumference partially mediates this effect. These findings support the implementation of a strategy that addresses meal frequency and weight reduction together.
This study examines mortality of the Amur tiger Panthera tigris altaica caused by traffic collision incidents in the Russian Far East from 1980 to 2023. Forty-six per cent of mortality incidents occurred within the last 4 years of this period (2020–2023) following an outbreak of African swine fever, which led to a reduction of prey available for tigers. Using multiple regression analysis, we identify significant predictors of tiger mortality, including road type, biotope, and distances to settlements and federally protected areas. We identified five locations with concentrations of tiger mortality, with four of these near protected areas comprising 54% of all incidents. Asphalt roads have an elevated risk of tiger deaths during the winter, whereas unpaved roads have elevated risk during warmer months. Wildlife-friendly road planning, including crossings and enhanced night-time controls, is crucial for reducing mortality and ensuring the survival of this species amidst increasing development of human infrastructure. This study highlights the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts to reduce traffic-related risks to the Amur tiger.
In Colombia, there has been very little discussion about the epidemiological transition in the 20th century, therefore, there are few empirical studies, and this mainly focus on the second half of the 20th century, and on the factors associated with improvements in mortality indicators. In this paper, we define three stages of the epidemiological transition in the country during the period 1918–1998, with special emphasis on changes in mortality rates, causes of death and the contribution of different age groups. Likewise, a co-integration analysis is carried out to model the long-term relationship between the mortality rate and the variables of nutrition, public health, education and economic growth. Finally, we show the results of the structural change tests of the mortality rates for pneumonia and tuberculosis to examine the impact of the arrival of sulphonamides and penicillin in Colombia.